🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Profited $436,000 from Wagers on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, sparking debate about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the end of January increased in the period preceding Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. One account, which became a member recently and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a starting bet of over $32,000. It remains unclear. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Market statistics shows that users put the odds of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet these probabilities had jumped to 11% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the first hours of January 3rd, suggesting a sudden change in market sentiment right before the social media post was made. "That trade has all the characteristics of a transaction based on non-public details," stated a financial reform advocate. A handful of other platform users also earned tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Legal Questions Grows Elected officials are growing concerned. A new rule presented on recently seeks to ban federal workers from participating on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a market. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the United States, with traders able to bet on everything from sports to current affairs. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. But it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency. Insider trading is a crime in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting industry. A company executive for Kalshi said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."